What is a black swan event? It is a rare, unpredictable event, like a black swan in nature. They are very rare, but every once in a long while, every once in a great many births, one appears. In the worlds of investing, economics, and politics, rare, unpredictable events are referred to as black swan events. What effect will such events have on silver investing?
What are the possibilities at this time in history? Here are a few I can think of:
Israel making a pre-emptive attack on Iran's nuclear facilities.
Iran attacking Israel.
A major bank failure.
Debt default by a country.
A successful major terrorist attack on a western nation.
A Korean war, possibly involving China and the USA.
A failed U.S. treasury auction.
A natural disaster that destroys one of the world's major financial centers.
A terrorist attack that destroys one of the world's major financial centers.
Assignation of a world leader.
Purchase of a great amount of gold by a country; possibly funded by the dumping of US Treasuries.
You may be able to think of others. You may think the chance of any black swan event occurring is very, very slight. But little doubt that the world is becoming more dangerous. Unrest is growing in many countries.
It is hard to conceive of a black swan event, except a sudden, unexpected outbreak of world peace, that would not good for the silver investing public.
I'm generally an optimistic guy. But when I devoted five minutes to thinking about potential events that would affect my silver investing, no positive events came to mind. And in my estimation, only positive events might be detrimental to the price of silver.
I believe the United States is in great economic peril, and within the next few years will drag the rest of the world into a severe economic depression. But if I am wrong, and world economies continue to expand, the already significant industrial demand for silver will only increase. And increased demand for silver is also good for silver investing.
By the way; if the United States somehow avoids severe economic malaise-that would be a black swan event, in my opinion.
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